Race Analysis for July 24

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: OUR COCO BEANS was up close to a fast pace for this level and then held on well to finish third in her first try going a middle distance. They probably won't be going as fast here and she figures to move forward in just her second at the distance. She also gets in with a feathery 102 pounds. AGAMEONE seems to try hard every time and she could move forward in her second straight route. Her latest was by far her best effort at the distance and she hasn't been out of the tri in any of her races this year. Once again figures to be in the mix and could easily win this if things fall her way. NITE TIME NEWS and ELUSIVE INTENTIONS dead-heated for fourth in the common race and once again are hard to separate.

RACE TWO: MR. COLLABORATOR has worked well enough leading up to his debut and over the past 5-years his trainer is a solid 31 percent with 2-year-olds making their debuts in maiden special weight races. Perez is attracted and that is significant because he was aboard when DRINKINGONTHEJOB worked a solid half-mile move on July 3 and the leading rider has put up solid numbers riding for MacPherson. DRINKINGONTHEJOB is stepping up after flopping as the heavy favorite when he debuted for $10,000 but they are only going 3 1/2 furlongs so the move up in class isn't as important as it could be. He looked pretty sharp in his 4-furlong move in :46.80 seconds and his new trainer is having a big meet. QUILCHENA PARK is bred to be a good one but his sire is below average with debuting 2-year-olds and it wouldn't be surprising if he wanted more distance. Nonetheless, he has worked decently and Condilenios can have them ready to go first time out.

RACE THREE: P. S. TOUCH DOWN just got nailed in the last jump as the heavy chalk in a $20K maiden race for B.C.-breds July 11 and a similar effort should get it done here. Toss her debut last year and she really hasn't run a bad race plus her Beyer Speed Figures stand out. PRINCESS RAINIER also just missed in her latest at this level and it was just her second start this year and third overall. She was a vet scratch in the same race the top pick exits but she has worked well since and she's in good hands. MALIGNE LAKE could be the sleeper. She got off to a poor start and then tired after making a threatening move while going 4-wide. She came back with a bullet 5-furlong move on July 17 and could be dangerous if she breaks alertly.

RACE FOUR: CREW LEADER was an impressive debut winner and he has the pedigree to be a good one. The horse he beat came right back to win his next start and if he takes the expected move forward in his second career start he'll be tough to handle. His connections think he's the best 3-year-old in their barn and they also entered THAT'S LUCKY, who's no slouch, to make sure the race went. CHEROKEE NOTION cuts back to a sprint and sheds the blinkers which could add up to a big performance. He had the lead at the top of the stretch when he stretched out for the first time in his latest and he should be set up perfectly for this. ROCKET ROAN was also an impressive debut winner last year and he ran a decent race when he finished second to Jack Diamond Futurity winner Silly Fella when he came back for his first start this year. Not sure why he hasn't made it back to the races since May 8 but his bullet 5-furlong move in :58.80 seconds July 16 is a good sign that he's ready for a big effort coming off the bench.

RACE FIVE: PRIVATE INTENTION finished behind MUCHO VERDE in a similar race on July 11 but he was in a little tight going into the first turn and then had to wait for racing room around the stretch turn. Blinkers come off for this and he could turn the tables with a clean trip. MUCHO VERDE ran another solid race to finish second at this level and once again should be right there. He does like to be involved early and it will be interesting to see how the race unfolds with WANDERING GYPSY stretching out to a two-turn sprint for the first time. WANDERING GYPSY was very sharp in both of his races going 3 1/2 furlongs and his trainer has solid stats with horses coming back to face winners for the first time - 26 percent over the past 5-years. He might be good enough.

RACE SIX: DEE'S VICTOR second place finish at this level in his first start this year was even better than it looks on paper. He broke slowly and then stumbled soon after leaving the starting gate. Then he had to wait for room when it looked like he was full of run on the stretch turn. Once he found room he responded with a strong move. He's had a sharp work since he ran and he should be tough to handle with any kind of move forward. OVERTIME MAGIC ran evenly in both of his races versus pricier maidens in May and has worked well enough for his return. His trainer has won with 2 of the last 3 he has brought back from this type of layoff and the jockey-trainer stats are very encouraging. MARKET SURGE couldn't keep up to one of the best horses on the grounds when he debuted in a maiden special weight race in May but he has worked smartly for his second start and he will obviously appreciate the much easier company. SNOWBIRD PASS appears to have the best speed and could take them a long way if he clears early.

RACE SEVEN: YOOROCK GAL couldn't keep up to fast fractions set by a very tough horse in her latest and she'll find these a lot easier to deal with. The pace won't be nearly as fast and it is certainly possible she will be the one setting it. If not, she can stalk. BEAULAH FAY also has good speed and might be more settled with the blinkers coming off for the first time in her 21-race career. There is the possibility the top two will hook up early and if they get carried away up front it could set up nicely for EMMITT'S GIRL, who just missed at this level in her latest. She is also the most consistent horse in the race and at the very least should be part of any exotics ticket. GOLDEN RATIO could move forward in the third start of her current form cycle and she has enough back class so she should be able to stand the jump after winning a conditional claimer in her latest.

RACE EIGHT: GRAND HUNTER figures to take a big step forward in his second try at a middle distance and he just missed when he stretched out for the first time in his latest. He easily has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and a similar effort is probably going to be good enough. SOCK PUPPET has been right there in his last four sprints and he almost won his latest despite leaving from the 11-hole. He's the first foal out of a mare that didn’t race, so not a lot to go on there, but over the past 5-years his trainer has a 33 percent strike rate with horses stretching out for the first time. DONTCALLMETOMORROW ran pretty well going long here last year and he could be the one they are chasing in his first route attempt of the year after getting warmed up in the bushes.